Prediction Report

Ticket #JOB-5 · July 11, 2026 · Predicted

Submitted inputs · July 11, 2026 · 7:33 PM

Symptoms

Does it run at all?: trips on start

What does the motor drive?: pump

What changed?: restart after outage

Can you turn the shaft by hand, uncoupled?: unknown

Drive & installation

Coupling: belt

Isolated/locked out: no

Mounting: vertical

Environment: clean dry

Times rewound: Gemma

Shaft grounding/insulated bearing: yes

Tests

Surge: pass

Ground/continuity: fail

Vibration: 1x_speed_imbalance

Notes

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⚠ UnpredictableConfidence 85/100 · High

Executive summary

Motor trips on start at power restoration with a failed ground/continuity test — treat as a ground-fault until proven otherwise. DO NOT energize: the unit is not locked out. First action is LOTO, then a megger insulation-to-ground test to localize the fault.

Est. cost · internal

$1,700

Labor

14 hrs

Turnaround

5 business days

Repair vs. replace

Repair (size unknown — confirm HP)

Likely failure mode

Mediumground-wall insulation failure

MediumMoisture/contamination surface fault after the outage caused a recoverable ground reading, not degraded ground-wall insulation

Lowground fault in cabling/connections, not motor

Required repairs

• Rewind or repair stator ground-wall insulation, pending teardown confirmation
• Clean, dip and bake windings if fault proves to be moisture/contamination, pending PI/IR results
• Dynamic balance rotor / correct belt-drive imbalance, pending vibration re-check

Material staging

Magnet wire (copper, rewind) ×lot · ~4d lead

98% likelyorder before teardown

Insulation kit — slot liners, wedges, phase paper ×1 set · ~3d lead

98% likelyorder before teardown

DE bearing ×1 · ~2d lead

95% likelyorder before teardown

ODE bearing ×1 · ~2d lead

95% likelyorder before teardown

Shaft / bearing seals ×set · ~1d lead

90% likelycheck stock

Varnish / resin (VPI or dip-and-bake) ×as req

95% likelycheck stock

Lead wire & sleeving ×as req · ~1d lead

80% likelycheck stock

Labor — 14 hrs total

Teardown & clean

2.1 h

Strip & rewind

6.3 h

Fit new bearings

1.1 h

VPI / dip & bake

1.7 h

Reassemble

1.7 h

Test & balance

1.1 h

Reinstall & coverage

• Reinstall & laser alignment on site — field service, quoted separately
• 12-month workmanship warranty — carried in the estimate
• Preventive maintenance plan — optional add-on

Sharpen estimate

Add evidence to tighten the estimate and raise confidence:

• Insulation resistance + polarization index (IEEE 43) — separates a full rewind from a cleanable/bakeable winding — the biggest cost swing

• Winding-resistance balance — flags opens / bad connections vs. a sound winding

• Photo of the winding (burn pattern) — burn pattern often fixes the mode and the rewind extent

• insulation resistance value + polarization index — reduces remaining uncertainty in the scope

Confirmed outcome

Reasoning

ground-wall insulation failure — tests: ground/continuity fail; questions: trips on start after outage restart

Moisture/contamination surface fault after the outage caused a recoverable ground reading, not degraded ground-wall insulation — QUESTION ANSWERS: fault appeared on restart after outage, consistent with condensation/moisture ingress during downtime; TEST INPUTS: surge test pass indicates turn-to-turn and winding dielectric intact, pointing to a surface leakage path rather than bulk insulation breakdown

ground fault in cabling/connections, not motor — belt-coupled + external supply path — fault may live upstream of motor

mechanical imbalance (secondary) — tests: vibration dominant 1x_speed_imbalance

No nameplate, no insulation value, and no identification of the tripping device cap overall confidence; the ground-fault call rests on a single pass/fail test channel without a measured IR to grade it.