Prediction Report

Ticket #JOB-4 · July 10, 2026 · Predicted

Submitted inputs · July 10, 2026 · 3:26 PM

Symptoms

Does it run at all?: trips on start

Noise character?: speed-proportional grind/rumble

What does the motor drive?: blower

What did the protection do (trip type)?: unknown

Burnt-varnish smell, smoke, or discoloration?: unknown

What changed?: hot ambient

Drive & installation

Drive: across-the-line

Coupling: other

Alignment: not aligned

Environment: corrosive chemical

Times rewound: Joanna

Tests

Surge: phase_to_phase

Ground/continuity: fail

Vibration: 2x_line_freq_electrical

Lubrication: ok

Core-loss test: fail

Notes

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⚠ UnpredictableConfidence 79/100 · High

Executive summary

Ground/continuity test fails and the post-strip core-loss test fails, with a 2x-line-frequency vibration signature and a start trip — evidence converges on a ground-wall insulation and/or core defect, not a recoverable condition. Confirm isolation/LOTO, then megger winding-to-ground and run winding-resistance/surge comparison before committing scope; a failed core points toward core repair or replacement.

Est. cost · internal

$1,700

Labor

14 hrs

Turnaround

5 business days

Repair vs. replace

Repair (size unknown — confirm HP)

Likely failure mode

Mediumground-wall insulation failure to core/frame

Mediumdegraded/failed stator core laminations

Mediumturn-to-turn / phase-to-phase winding short

Required repairs

• Rewind stator (pending teardown confirmation)
• Core repair or core replacement if core-loss failure confirmed (pending teardown confirmation)
• Clean/decontaminate windings and restack/verify laminations
• Correct coupling alignment on reinstall

Material staging

Magnet wire (copper, rewind) ×lot · ~4d lead

98% likelyorder before teardown

Insulation kit — slot liners, wedges, phase paper ×1 set · ~3d lead

98% likelyorder before teardown

DE bearing ×1 · ~2d lead

95% likelyorder before teardown

ODE bearing ×1 · ~2d lead

95% likelyorder before teardown

Shaft / bearing seals ×set · ~1d lead

90% likelycheck stock

Varnish / resin (VPI or dip-and-bake) ×as req

95% likelycheck stock

Lead wire & sleeving ×as req · ~1d lead

80% likelycheck stock

Labor — 14 hrs total

Teardown & clean

2.1 h

Strip & rewind

6.3 h

Fit new bearings

1.1 h

VPI / dip & bake

1.7 h

Reassemble

1.7 h

Test & balance

1.1 h

Reinstall & coverage

• Reinstall & laser alignment on site — strongly recommended — reported alignment is rough/none, a leading bearing killer
• 12-month workmanship warranty — carried in the estimate
• Preventive maintenance plan — optional add-on

Sharpen estimate

Add evidence to tighten the estimate and raise confidence:

• Insulation resistance + polarization index (IEEE 43) — separates a full rewind from a cleanable/bakeable winding — the biggest cost swing

• Winding-resistance balance — flags opens / bad connections vs. a sound winding

• Photo of the winding (burn pattern) — burn pattern often fixes the mode and the rewind extent

• Nameplate (HP, voltage, poles, frame) — reduces remaining uncertainty in the scope

Confirmed outcome

Reasoning

ground-wall insulation failure to core/frame — tests: ground/continuity fail; questions: trips on start

degraded/failed stator core laminations — tests: core-loss test (post-strip) fail; tests: vibration dominant 2x line freq (electromagnetic/air-gap)

turn-to-turn / phase-to-phase winding short — tests: surge test phase_to_phase anomaly; tests: vibration 2x line freq consistent with stator asymmetry

mechanical looseness / misalignment secondary — installation: coupling not_aligned; questions: speed-proportional grind/rumble

No nameplate and unknown trip type/thermal indicators cap overall confidence; diagnosis rests mainly on the two failed bench tests. Note: intake free text is unrelated marketing spam and the 'times rewound' field ('Joanna') is not valid data.