Prediction Report

Ticket #JOB-3 · July 10, 2026 · Predicted

Submitted inputs · July 10, 2026 · 2:30 PM

Symptoms

Does it run at all?: trips on start

Noise character?: sub-synchronous squeal

What does the motor drive?: pump

What changed?: unknown

Drive & installation

Drive: soft_starter

Coupling: gearbox

Load connected: yes

Isolated/locked out: yes

Mounting: vertical

Environment: dusty abrasive

Times rewound: Joanna Riggs

Tests

Surge: phase_to_phase

Vibration: 2x_line_freq_electrical

Lubrication: ok

Core-loss test: pass

Notes

Hi, I just visited rotoragent.ai and wondered if you've ever considered an impactful video to advertise your business? Our videos can generate impressive results on both your website and across social media. Our videos cost just $195 (USD) for a 30 second video ($239 for 60 seconds) and include a full script, voice-over and video. I can show you some previous videos we've done if you want me to send some over. Let me know if you're interested in seeing samples of our previous work. Regards, Joanna Unsubscribe: https://unsubscribe.video/unsubscribe.php?d=rotoragent.ai

⚠ UnpredictableConfidence 72/100 · Medium

Executive summary

The submission is largely spam/marketing contamination, not a genuine repair case; the 'rewind history' field literally contains the sender's name and the free text is a video-ad solicitation. The only technically coherent signals are a start trip with a 2x-line-frequency vibration signature on a vertical, gearbox-coupled pump, which points toward an electromagnetic/air-gap or stator asymmetry — but this cannot be trusted without a clean intake. Re-collect the case; the motor is confirmed isolated/locked out, so no immediate safety action.

Est. cost · internal

$1,700

Labor

14 hrs

Turnaround

4 business days

Repair vs. replace

Repair (size unknown — confirm HP)

Likely failure mode

Mediumcase data invalid / spam contamination

Lowstator/air-gap electromagnetic asymmetry

Lowload-side / gearbox drag causing start trip

Required repairs

Confirmed at teardown.

Material staging

Cleaning & bake-out ×service

95% likelycheck stock

Re-varnish (dip & bake) ×as req

90% likelycheck stock

DE bearing ×1 · ~2d lead

80% likelyorder before teardown

ODE bearing ×1 · ~2d lead

80% likelyorder before teardown

Shaft / bearing seals ×set · ~1d lead

95% likelycheck stock

Labor — 14 hrs total

Teardown

2.8 h

Clean & bake

4.9 h

Fit bearings

2.1 h

Reassemble

2.8 h

Test

1.4 h

Reinstall & coverage

• Reinstall & laser alignment on site — field service, quoted separately
• 12-month workmanship warranty — carried in the estimate
• Preventive maintenance plan — optional add-on

Sharpen estimate

Add evidence to tighten the estimate and raise confidence:

• Photo of the failure area — visible damage often confirms the mode before teardown

• Valid nameplate (HP, voltage, poles, FLA, frame) — reduces remaining uncertainty in the scope

• Phase currents and voltage balance at start attempt — reduces remaining uncertainty in the scope

Confirmed outcome

Reasoning

case data invalid / spam contamination — free text: video advertising solicitation with unsubscribe link; context: rewind-count field contains a person's name 'Joanna Riggs'

stator/air-gap electromagnetic asymmetry — tests: vibration dominant at 2x line frequency; questions: trips on start

load-side / gearbox drag causing start trip — context: gearbox coupling, load connected; questions: sub-synchronous squeal, pump load

vertical thrust-bearing rub/drag — questions: sub-synchronous squeal; context: vertical mounting (thrust bearing)

Overall confidence is capped by contaminated intake: no nameplate, a rewind field holding a person's name, and spam free text mean no channel can be trusted as a clean perception.